I have listened to all of the analysts and pundants about what has been going on and distilled it down to what I think.
I have made lots of mistakes so it may be that you should think and do exactly of opposite of me.
At least this is another opinion for you to consider.
First the good news.
1.
The stock market adjustment is about over.
It is probably at the bottom as of yesterday although next week will have some ups and downs.
Then there will be a big jump up and then it will be back down for a short period and then on to normal ups and downs.
It is now down about 40% from its high and that is about normal for a recession.
This recession might be deeper than normal but probably not because of the incredible governmental actions being taken.
It will probably be at least a few years in length because of the coming recession.
Stock prices needed to adjust down to the reality of the probable present value of future income and they may be about there.
However, our financial system is in such a mess no one knows what the assets are and how to guess about the future.
2.
The price of oil is coming down because of two main reasons: A.
Our congress has finally allowed us to at least drill some more offshore.
We already have about 4,000 wells out there drilled during the previous 30 years.
In my opinion the fact that Clinton vetoed the law that allowed us to drill in ANWAR plus the fact that the Democratic congress would not allow us to drill offshore or encourage the development of nuclear plants is the basic reason for the high prices of oil and therefore the recession.
Our energy companies just couldn't keep the supply up with the demand.
B.
The coming recession.
At least the price of oil has finally caused the public to understand that we have to get serious and develop an energy policy to wean ourselves from the huge dependence on oil.
But, in my opinion neither of our presidential candidates has proposed a clear plan.
I agree with McCain's ideas that we should build a lot more nuclear power plants.
That would be enough to eliminate the need for oil from the Middle East.
I know about the waste but now about 90% of that can be recycled and we have developed very safe containers and a very good storage facility deep under ground.
I agree with McCain's advisor Fred Smith of FedEx that we should convert our automobiles to electric and hybrids and use natural gas to run our electric generating plants.
But McCain has done a terrible job of explaining that! If we commit to nuclear and electric there will be lots more advances that will make it a much better alternative than oil anyway.
If we commit to developing clean technology for coal and use it for electric generation then we have hundreds of years of coal supplies.
Obama's plan to give incentives to all of us to be much more efficient in the use of electricity in our homes is a good idea but it doesn't address the much bigger problem of our transportation.
Everyone loves the idea of alternative sources and both candidates will do research and advance it some.
But the reality is that combined they represent something like 10% of our needs now and have a max potential of about 20%.
Boone Pickens's plan for windmills is the best alternative energy plan proposed and it would help but would really be ugly.
We are going into a recession because of three main reasons: 1.
The extraordinary shock of the high prices for oil.
As an example I just talked to a guy who hauls water for our street improvement projects.
He said that the city had delayed projects for months because of the high price of oil and lots of family men couldn't wait and had to find other work so their construction crews are largely gone.
At least the city is doing some now but the summer construction period is about over.
We all know that we have cut way down on driving and that is impacting all the businesses that relied on the normal flow of traffic.
The increases in oil prices have run many businesses out of business and the price is impacting all of us in the form of higher prices for everything.
Lots of people have no money, lots have lost their jobs and that will mean others will lose their jobs.
2.
Our Congress has tried to help the poor to own homes for the last 15 years or so but they made terrible mistakes and refused to face the problems.
Many of our congressional leaders were bribed in various ways to look the other way.
3.
Our Congress authorized the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) to allow gambling houses called 'investment banks' to take ridiculous risks of 40 to one and gamble in new types of financial instruments.
Again they were bribed and the leader of the SEC was absolutely clueless.
And finally a summary: We as a nation are much poorer than we have ever been before because of the above policies and mistakes and corruption and because of over spending.
We are deep in debt.
We are again spending way more than our government takes in to fix this problem.
We have a lot of fixes that need to be made but I don't have any faith in our current congressional leaders.
The biggest problem for the future is giving so much of our wealth to other countries for their oil.
When we solve that then we will begin getting wealthier again if we will quit spending more than we take in.
Give me your feedback.
We need a good discussion of these issues and ideas.
Jerry W.
Willis www.
jerrywwillis.
com
I have made lots of mistakes so it may be that you should think and do exactly of opposite of me.
At least this is another opinion for you to consider.
First the good news.
1.
The stock market adjustment is about over.
It is probably at the bottom as of yesterday although next week will have some ups and downs.
Then there will be a big jump up and then it will be back down for a short period and then on to normal ups and downs.
It is now down about 40% from its high and that is about normal for a recession.
This recession might be deeper than normal but probably not because of the incredible governmental actions being taken.
It will probably be at least a few years in length because of the coming recession.
Stock prices needed to adjust down to the reality of the probable present value of future income and they may be about there.
However, our financial system is in such a mess no one knows what the assets are and how to guess about the future.
2.
The price of oil is coming down because of two main reasons: A.
Our congress has finally allowed us to at least drill some more offshore.
We already have about 4,000 wells out there drilled during the previous 30 years.
In my opinion the fact that Clinton vetoed the law that allowed us to drill in ANWAR plus the fact that the Democratic congress would not allow us to drill offshore or encourage the development of nuclear plants is the basic reason for the high prices of oil and therefore the recession.
Our energy companies just couldn't keep the supply up with the demand.
B.
The coming recession.
At least the price of oil has finally caused the public to understand that we have to get serious and develop an energy policy to wean ourselves from the huge dependence on oil.
But, in my opinion neither of our presidential candidates has proposed a clear plan.
I agree with McCain's ideas that we should build a lot more nuclear power plants.
That would be enough to eliminate the need for oil from the Middle East.
I know about the waste but now about 90% of that can be recycled and we have developed very safe containers and a very good storage facility deep under ground.
I agree with McCain's advisor Fred Smith of FedEx that we should convert our automobiles to electric and hybrids and use natural gas to run our electric generating plants.
But McCain has done a terrible job of explaining that! If we commit to nuclear and electric there will be lots more advances that will make it a much better alternative than oil anyway.
If we commit to developing clean technology for coal and use it for electric generation then we have hundreds of years of coal supplies.
Obama's plan to give incentives to all of us to be much more efficient in the use of electricity in our homes is a good idea but it doesn't address the much bigger problem of our transportation.
Everyone loves the idea of alternative sources and both candidates will do research and advance it some.
But the reality is that combined they represent something like 10% of our needs now and have a max potential of about 20%.
Boone Pickens's plan for windmills is the best alternative energy plan proposed and it would help but would really be ugly.
We are going into a recession because of three main reasons: 1.
The extraordinary shock of the high prices for oil.
As an example I just talked to a guy who hauls water for our street improvement projects.
He said that the city had delayed projects for months because of the high price of oil and lots of family men couldn't wait and had to find other work so their construction crews are largely gone.
At least the city is doing some now but the summer construction period is about over.
We all know that we have cut way down on driving and that is impacting all the businesses that relied on the normal flow of traffic.
The increases in oil prices have run many businesses out of business and the price is impacting all of us in the form of higher prices for everything.
Lots of people have no money, lots have lost their jobs and that will mean others will lose their jobs.
2.
Our Congress has tried to help the poor to own homes for the last 15 years or so but they made terrible mistakes and refused to face the problems.
Many of our congressional leaders were bribed in various ways to look the other way.
3.
Our Congress authorized the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) to allow gambling houses called 'investment banks' to take ridiculous risks of 40 to one and gamble in new types of financial instruments.
Again they were bribed and the leader of the SEC was absolutely clueless.
And finally a summary: We as a nation are much poorer than we have ever been before because of the above policies and mistakes and corruption and because of over spending.
We are deep in debt.
We are again spending way more than our government takes in to fix this problem.
We have a lot of fixes that need to be made but I don't have any faith in our current congressional leaders.
The biggest problem for the future is giving so much of our wealth to other countries for their oil.
When we solve that then we will begin getting wealthier again if we will quit spending more than we take in.
Give me your feedback.
We need a good discussion of these issues and ideas.
Jerry W.
Willis www.
jerrywwillis.
com
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