The spike in certified pre-owned cars for January 2012 means many things to the used car market - and none of them are necessarily good news for the consumer or the independent used car dealer.

To sum up quickly, certified pre-owned used cars are vehicles, typically less than four years old with less than 50,000 miles, that are taken in as trade-ins or off-lease, refurbished, and sold with an extended warranty.

Because of that warranty, only the top-of-the-line used cars become certified pre-owned. Also, because of that same warranty, certified pre-owned used cars cost more money.

Autodata Corp, according to an article at AutoRemarketing.com, 131,229 certified pre-owned (CPO) sales took place in January, "Despite this being nearly a 17% slide from December, it marked a 6% increase from the opening month of 2011," the article said.

It's the last number that indicates the used car market might be drying up for quality used cars. It's a relatively small number at about 7200 cars but it portends growth for the rest of the year. (Month-over-month comparisons are usually meaningless. You really need to compare year-over-year.)

Tighter supply could mean some franchised dealers cutting corners when it comes to certified pre-owned sales. Franchised dealers need to follow guidelines put forth by their manufacturers but who is to say an item can't be fudged? The beauty is, if it breaks, the manufacturer ends up making the repairs and the dealer still makes the profit.

Just to clarify - that is not a blanket condemnation of all franchised used car dealers. The vast majority (probably 99%) are honest people but the temptation is always going to be there for dealers feeling financial pressures, especially on the new car side where floor plan financing (the cost of keeping cars on the lot before they are sold) has sunk more than one dealership in tight economic times.

Also, remember not to be confused by certified pre-owned programs that aren't run by franchised dealers. For example, you can't buy a certified pre-owned Buick from an Audi dealership. Those kinds of certified pre-owned vehicles are actually insurance policies.

You can almost expect a new class of used car to appear in the coming months: near certified pre-owned or something along those lines. Maybe it will be something like a star rating for used cars.

The large companies with multiple locations, like CarMax, are shut out of the certified pre-owned business. They're going to be the likely generators of a new class of used cars that will have the same cache as certified pre-owned but without the actual designation. Used car megadealers are going to want to create the super class of used cars.

And that is potentially a bad thing for two classes of people: independent used car dealers and used car buyers. The increase in sales of the highly profitable certified pre-owned used cars is going to further weaken the supply of used cars for independent used car dealers. That's going to ultimately lead to the decline of the independent used car dealer much like a lot of independent hardware stores went under when Home Depot and Lowe's came to prominence (except the really well-run stores that continued to thrive).

It's a bad thing for used car buyers because it ultimately drives up the cost as the supply of used cars becomes more limited. There has been talk that increased supply is going to change things but it's also going to change the way used cars are marketed. Once corporations get involved in the game they need to maintain their profits. They're going to go further and further down the used car food chain to obtain product (further hurting the independent dealers).

Two classes of sellers are going to benefit from an uptick in certified pre-owned sales: buy here, pay here dealers and private sellers. The buy-here dealers will do well because there will always be people needing non-traditional credit and private sellers are going to do well because their used cars are going to be worth more and people will always be bargain hunting.

Don't despair if you are a used car buyer who is somewhat flummoxed by the spike in certified pre-owned vehicles. They're still a good bargain if you are the type who purchases a used car and holds onto it for years to come. You're the type of buyer who should pay the premium because you will be getting a higher quality used car that should be good for years to come. If it isn't, at least it still has a good warranty to back it.