When Carl Levin resigned his US Senate seat in Michigan, the general thinking was that the Democrats wouldn't have much trouble holding the seat. After all, the state gave Obama 10-point victory in 2012 despite efforts by the Romney campaign to take the state. In the race for the other US Senate seat held that year, the Republican candidate lost by 20 points. (Good thing we didn't have a tea party candidate, because they would have really really lost.) However, the race is a lot more competitive than anyone thought, and it has landed on the GOP's wish-list for taking back control of the US Senate.
The Democratic Hopeful
Six-term congressman Gary Peters is the hand-picked candidate to represent the Democrats and will cruise to the nomination, unless something unexpected happens. Like most Democrats this cycle, Peters will have to fend off attacks on the Obamacare front after voting for the legislation back in 2010. Unfortunately for Peters, Obamacare is one of the issues that can hurt a candidate no matter how blue the state is. One anti-Obamacare ad was likely so effective that the Peters campaign had to threaten to have the TV licenses pulled of stations that dared air it. Of course his bigger problem is there are probably 100s of similar people with similar stories that could be cut. Peters is a solidly on team Obama and is not considered much of a moderate. In Michigan, moderation is not usually a requirement to win to begin with. In polling, Peters has had break-even favorable numbers, putting him at a disadvantage to his likely Republican opponent who is viewed much more favorably.
The Republican Hopeful
Like Peters, former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is expected to easily win her party's nomination for the Senate contest. Though polls show many voters are unfamiliar with Land, she has double-digit favorable ratings from those who know her, giving her a leg up on Peters in the early stages of the race. Land also has the advantage of having twice won statewide election (2002 and 2006) by double-digits. Though Land was initially considered a second-tier candidate by many, she has shown surprising poll strength and fundraising numbers. Land has thus far focused on economic and tax issues and, of course, Obamacare.
Early Outlook
Both candidates had roughly $3M on hand at the end of 2013 and neither candidate has spent a significant amount of money yet. Peters will benefit from being a Democrat in a state that has voted for 6 straight Democratic presidential nominees and that has only elected a Republican to the US Senate once since 1978. The national Democrats will also be investing a lot of resources into this race as they are already expected to bleed a lose a handful of seats in red states. Michigan is not one they will want to give up easily.
Land also has some advantages. As already discussed, Obamacare will be a major theme and that can only help Land. It's a mid-term election, which means there is no Barack Obama on the ballot to help get out the vote. Republicans also tend to be slightly more active in mid-term elections than their counterparts. And speaking of potential coat-tails, Republican Governor Rick Snyder is the early favorite to win re-election and will be pouring plenty of money into the gubernatorial race. The GOP also holds cash and electoral advantages in races for Attorney General and Secretary of State and hold a 9-5 advantage in congressional seats. The strong slate of candidates across the board could end up being a good thing for all candidates on the ballot, especially Land.
Though it's early, Land has seen her poll standing steadily growing, despite spending little money on the race so far. After slightly trailing in most polls throughout 2013, her numbers spiked after the failed launch of Obamacare late in 2013. Since then, she has led in all 5 polls done between December 2013 and February 2014 by an average of 4 points.
The Democratic Hopeful
Six-term congressman Gary Peters is the hand-picked candidate to represent the Democrats and will cruise to the nomination, unless something unexpected happens. Like most Democrats this cycle, Peters will have to fend off attacks on the Obamacare front after voting for the legislation back in 2010. Unfortunately for Peters, Obamacare is one of the issues that can hurt a candidate no matter how blue the state is. One anti-Obamacare ad was likely so effective that the Peters campaign had to threaten to have the TV licenses pulled of stations that dared air it. Of course his bigger problem is there are probably 100s of similar people with similar stories that could be cut. Peters is a solidly on team Obama and is not considered much of a moderate. In Michigan, moderation is not usually a requirement to win to begin with. In polling, Peters has had break-even favorable numbers, putting him at a disadvantage to his likely Republican opponent who is viewed much more favorably.
The Republican Hopeful
Like Peters, former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is expected to easily win her party's nomination for the Senate contest. Though polls show many voters are unfamiliar with Land, she has double-digit favorable ratings from those who know her, giving her a leg up on Peters in the early stages of the race. Land also has the advantage of having twice won statewide election (2002 and 2006) by double-digits. Though Land was initially considered a second-tier candidate by many, she has shown surprising poll strength and fundraising numbers. Land has thus far focused on economic and tax issues and, of course, Obamacare.
Early Outlook
Both candidates had roughly $3M on hand at the end of 2013 and neither candidate has spent a significant amount of money yet. Peters will benefit from being a Democrat in a state that has voted for 6 straight Democratic presidential nominees and that has only elected a Republican to the US Senate once since 1978. The national Democrats will also be investing a lot of resources into this race as they are already expected to bleed a lose a handful of seats in red states. Michigan is not one they will want to give up easily.
Land also has some advantages. As already discussed, Obamacare will be a major theme and that can only help Land. It's a mid-term election, which means there is no Barack Obama on the ballot to help get out the vote. Republicans also tend to be slightly more active in mid-term elections than their counterparts. And speaking of potential coat-tails, Republican Governor Rick Snyder is the early favorite to win re-election and will be pouring plenty of money into the gubernatorial race. The GOP also holds cash and electoral advantages in races for Attorney General and Secretary of State and hold a 9-5 advantage in congressional seats. The strong slate of candidates across the board could end up being a good thing for all candidates on the ballot, especially Land.
Though it's early, Land has seen her poll standing steadily growing, despite spending little money on the race so far. After slightly trailing in most polls throughout 2013, her numbers spiked after the failed launch of Obamacare late in 2013. Since then, she has led in all 5 polls done between December 2013 and February 2014 by an average of 4 points.
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