When you are faced with a tough decision about whether or not to chase a draw in a sit n go hold'em tournament, think about this following analogy.
It might help you to better understand the options and their consequences.
Everyone, I suppose, is familiar with the game of Russian Roulette.
We will use its game principles to help illuminate our analogy.
The game is simple.
Insert a number of bullets into the empty chambers of a revolver.
Place barrel to head.
Pull trigger.
If you are lucky, you will survive.
If not, you are dead.
Your probability of luckiness is determined by the number of empty chambers compared to the number of live chambers.
Now, imagine the chambers of the revolver to be a deck of cards.
But, now the similarity ends.
There are 52 chambers, and the empty chambers contain the demons that could kill your tournament life.
There are way more empty chambers than there are live chambers, usually around 3-to-4 times as many.
The live chambers contain your out cards.
So, will you pull the trigger and chase the draw or not? Maybe you would if the worst case would only be a treatable flesh wound to your stack.
Or you likely would not, if the consequence was certain tournament death.
And, there might be other considerations.
What if you held a chip lead, and really were under no pressure to take any risks? Or, what if you were a desperate short stack, and tournament life just was not worth living unless you could scrape together a nest egg? If desperate, then you likely would chase the draw regardless of how many or how few chambers held your out cards.
Your decision about whether or not to play the game (chase the draw) then, could be influenced by factors independent of your probability of luckiness.
In other words, if you were enjoying your tournament life, you would be less likely to gamble with your life.
And, if you were just surviving from one meal to the next, well you would be more inclined to gamble for a better life.
But, even if you were a shrewd player who considered such matters as outs, odds, probability, and profitability, and were still willing to take the gamble, there is yet another twist.
When you play the drawing game, there are two sets of rules.
There are the virtual rules, of which you are aware and must accept.
And, there are the actual rules.
The actual rules are not published.
They are kept secret.
And, they change randomly from game to game.
The actual rules determine which ones of your out cards will be chambered.
Oftentimes, several, perhaps all of your out cards will be omitted, but you will not be aware of this dramatic probability shift.
You must play ignorant of the actual odds against you.
The moral? Well, you only have one tournament life to live.
If it is worth living, then do not gamble with it on a draw.
The odds are always against you, and probably worse than you think.
If, on the other hand, yours is a crummy life, hardly worth living.
Then, take the gamble.
You will either end your misery, or hopefully move into a mansion.
It might help you to better understand the options and their consequences.
Everyone, I suppose, is familiar with the game of Russian Roulette.
We will use its game principles to help illuminate our analogy.
The game is simple.
Insert a number of bullets into the empty chambers of a revolver.
Place barrel to head.
Pull trigger.
If you are lucky, you will survive.
If not, you are dead.
Your probability of luckiness is determined by the number of empty chambers compared to the number of live chambers.
Now, imagine the chambers of the revolver to be a deck of cards.
But, now the similarity ends.
There are 52 chambers, and the empty chambers contain the demons that could kill your tournament life.
There are way more empty chambers than there are live chambers, usually around 3-to-4 times as many.
The live chambers contain your out cards.
So, will you pull the trigger and chase the draw or not? Maybe you would if the worst case would only be a treatable flesh wound to your stack.
Or you likely would not, if the consequence was certain tournament death.
And, there might be other considerations.
What if you held a chip lead, and really were under no pressure to take any risks? Or, what if you were a desperate short stack, and tournament life just was not worth living unless you could scrape together a nest egg? If desperate, then you likely would chase the draw regardless of how many or how few chambers held your out cards.
Your decision about whether or not to play the game (chase the draw) then, could be influenced by factors independent of your probability of luckiness.
In other words, if you were enjoying your tournament life, you would be less likely to gamble with your life.
And, if you were just surviving from one meal to the next, well you would be more inclined to gamble for a better life.
But, even if you were a shrewd player who considered such matters as outs, odds, probability, and profitability, and were still willing to take the gamble, there is yet another twist.
When you play the drawing game, there are two sets of rules.
There are the virtual rules, of which you are aware and must accept.
And, there are the actual rules.
The actual rules are not published.
They are kept secret.
And, they change randomly from game to game.
The actual rules determine which ones of your out cards will be chambered.
Oftentimes, several, perhaps all of your out cards will be omitted, but you will not be aware of this dramatic probability shift.
You must play ignorant of the actual odds against you.
The moral? Well, you only have one tournament life to live.
If it is worth living, then do not gamble with it on a draw.
The odds are always against you, and probably worse than you think.
If, on the other hand, yours is a crummy life, hardly worth living.
Then, take the gamble.
You will either end your misery, or hopefully move into a mansion.
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