The father of trend following of trading commodities is Richard Donchian. Donchian started the first manged futures fund for trading commodities in 1949. Despite his long term success in trading commodities skeptics abound till today. To me a commodity trading advisor my plan is partially based on Donchian and his methods of trading commodities. His main focus is price. The bottom line you can analyze till your blue in the face, but in order to make money trading commodities you need a price move. A price move enables a commodity trading advisor to follow a trend. Donchian learned the hard way and lost all his money in the great depression of 1929. He was disciplined enough and patient to make a comeback by focusing on trend following and trading commodities. His methods have been the basis of countless successful commodity trading advisors ( turtles as well as countless others). He instilled in order to succeed in trading commodities that one must look at a diverse basket of commodities and maintain a strong level of patience and discipline.

He utilized simple rules for his buys and sells such as buying price breakouts and selling price breakdowns. ( In all my years of trading commodities only simple ideas can work with a strong degree of risk & money management). Donchian proved that one does not need to predict anything but rather react ( Sorry CNBC & Bloomberg). Donchian simply followed price trends ( trend following). Year in...year old trends exist virtually in all markets and time frames You can trend follow while trading commodities or forex or even stocks.

Simply Trends persist. The key is following your system and having the patience to stay with it during the eventual long drawn out drawn downs. If you can do that you will be a winner in the commodity futures trading arena.

Andy Abraham
http://www.myinvestorsplace.com

Futures and commodity trading involve substantial risk.People can and do lose money trading.