The Futurists Magazine and many of the futurists in the group often believe they can predict the future and move their minds to believe that in this illustrious future, science will allow for the running of a perfect Utopia.
But in retrospect and studying the past - this is not what we find at all.
Generally, in retrospect almost none of the predictions made a decade ago are true today.
Thus, why should we listen to these folks at all.
Okay so, that is a good point and good place to start this discussion.
A recent article in that publication "2011 Top Ten: 1.
Physicists could become tomorrow's leading economic forecasters," predicts that we can mathematically control free-markets, global economics, and stabilize it all.
Regarding forecast number one, I think I might disagree, and yes, I too have read all the papers on this, along with the MIT speeches, and the famous Canadian Mathematician economist.
But still, it seems the Quants are back-peddling, and had not made such stellar returns as of late.
Now there most likely will be a resurgence of quant hedge funds, surely there will be, but I'd hold short on this prediction.
And yes, I have taken into consideration all the AI supercomputer advances which might lead one to believe this future reality, but it's too soon to make that prediction, I stand in disagreement on number one.
I recommend reading the book "Quants" and looking up several of the recent articles in the WSJ on this topic - last 6-months or so.
And really it does appear the Flash Crash in 2010 occurred due to one bad high-frequency trading algorithm, yes, innovated by a Physicist.
And indeed, there does not seem to be one algorithm, or set of such that can adequately predict markets or economic affairs, and it gets tougher when we add-in a global economy, multiple stock markets, affixed to different currencies, politics, manipulation, central banks, etc.
if we think that a straight technical analyst physicist with only mathematics on his side can predict and tend to free-markets, stock markets, currencies, politics, and such, well, I am sorry but in such a chaotic system, that's just highly unlikely.
Part of the beauty of it all, indeed is the chaos in motion, and if it was predictable, it would be manipulated even worse by those who seek wealth over wisdom.
I think the futurists are completely wrong, but I do enjoy this topic, mostly to show how silly the minds of humans can be, when they predict that which they have no clue about.
Please consider all this and call someone on you cell phone to discuss this.
But in retrospect and studying the past - this is not what we find at all.
Generally, in retrospect almost none of the predictions made a decade ago are true today.
Thus, why should we listen to these folks at all.
Okay so, that is a good point and good place to start this discussion.
A recent article in that publication "2011 Top Ten: 1.
Physicists could become tomorrow's leading economic forecasters," predicts that we can mathematically control free-markets, global economics, and stabilize it all.
Regarding forecast number one, I think I might disagree, and yes, I too have read all the papers on this, along with the MIT speeches, and the famous Canadian Mathematician economist.
But still, it seems the Quants are back-peddling, and had not made such stellar returns as of late.
Now there most likely will be a resurgence of quant hedge funds, surely there will be, but I'd hold short on this prediction.
And yes, I have taken into consideration all the AI supercomputer advances which might lead one to believe this future reality, but it's too soon to make that prediction, I stand in disagreement on number one.
I recommend reading the book "Quants" and looking up several of the recent articles in the WSJ on this topic - last 6-months or so.
And really it does appear the Flash Crash in 2010 occurred due to one bad high-frequency trading algorithm, yes, innovated by a Physicist.
And indeed, there does not seem to be one algorithm, or set of such that can adequately predict markets or economic affairs, and it gets tougher when we add-in a global economy, multiple stock markets, affixed to different currencies, politics, manipulation, central banks, etc.
if we think that a straight technical analyst physicist with only mathematics on his side can predict and tend to free-markets, stock markets, currencies, politics, and such, well, I am sorry but in such a chaotic system, that's just highly unlikely.
Part of the beauty of it all, indeed is the chaos in motion, and if it was predictable, it would be manipulated even worse by those who seek wealth over wisdom.
I think the futurists are completely wrong, but I do enjoy this topic, mostly to show how silly the minds of humans can be, when they predict that which they have no clue about.
Please consider all this and call someone on you cell phone to discuss this.
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