Earlier I wrote about how the Red Sox have improved their roster this off-season by adding players through free agency and trades. To do that, they’ve had to say good-bye to some talented and potentially talented players. So while adding players has added value to the roster, subtracting players subtracts value from the roster. Hopefully not as much as it adds, of course, but you never know. So with that as my entrance music, here’s a look at what the Red Sox have lost this off-season.
The most important thing the Red Sox have lost this off-season is Jon Lester. Yes, Jon Lester isn’t a thing, but I didn’t want to spoil the surprise mid-sentence. Lester is an ace and a homegrown one at that, so the fact that the Red Sox opted not to match the Cubs $155 million offer and retain the pitcher came as something of a surprise. I was one of the people that said you can't sign a guy three months after trading him, but to their credit, the Red Sox did give it the old college try. The organization has since the Theo Epstein days placed a value on a player and then avoided (mostly) going over on that number. It seems that’s what they did here. $135 million isn’t anything to sneeze at, and Lester sure didn’t. The only problem with the offer was the timing. Had they made it either at the All Star break or during spring training last season it’s likely Lester would have agreed. In fact, he said in a post-signing talk on Boston radio that he would have stayed had Boston made that offer.
But they didn’t make that offer until they’d already dealt Lester out of the organization and until a better offer (if not more than one) was starring him in the face.
Without Lester, the Red Sox lack that top-of-the-rotation talent that many teams that win the post-season series have. That isn’t to say the Red Sox couldn’t win the World Series as presently constituted, or that they couldn’t win the World Series with a different ace. They could. To both. And because Lester is now in Chicago, they’ll have to if they are to win another one. The recent history of the Red Sox indicates the value of an ace starter, as Lester, Josh Becket, and Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez were all at the head of Boston’s rotation when the team won their three World Series over the past decade.
Losing Lester is big. It’s not insurmountable, but it’s big, and it’s the most notable downgrade from the 2014 roster.
Beyond that, most of the players who left town aren’t the kind that impact the team in anywhere near the way Lester can. Will Middlebrooks had and still has talent, but his inability to adjust to major league pitching, his injuries, and his overall production made moving him an easy decision. David Ross signed in Chicago, likely to serve as Jon Lester’s personal catcher as he did in Boston. Ross was a productive backup, but backup catchers aren’t expensive, and indeed the Red Sox replaced Ross with Ryan Hannigan, a better hitter who is a similarly skilled defensive catcher.
Acquiring starter Wade Miley from Arizona cost young-ish pitchers Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster, but considering their track records, both are likely bullpen arms or back end rotation guys. In short, they still both have potential, but the likelihood is that neither will be better than Miley, and it’s possible both together won’t be either. With the glut of young starters coming through the system (Brian Johnson, Henry Owens, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Workman, Matt Barnes, and Anthony Ranaudo just to name a few) De La Rosa and Webster were expendable.
Finally, perhaps the most intriguing player to exit Boston was outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes is a player with obvious talents and just as obvious flaws. He hits for amazing power, but does not get on base well. He has an incredible arm in the outfield, but doesn’t cover ground well and often makes bumbling mistakes when fielding the ball. He’s an intriguing talent and a player who will make a team better in the abstract, but it’s difficult to argue the Red Sox aren’t better off with the more all-around offensive talent of Hanley Ramirez who will man left field in 2015, and Rick Porcello who came over from Detroit for Cespedes. Ramirez should be more valuable than Cespedes in 2015 and I’d bet over the next four seasons as well. Porcello will be a free agent in 2016 but then so will Cespedes so that’s a wash.
In the end, the only big loss for Boston was in not re-signing Jon Lester. The Red Sox will have some work to do to make up for that loss, but even with that on the books, the 2015 Red Sox look like a much stronger team up and down the roster than the 2014 version.
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